Barack Obama gave today, in Jerusalem, what some of his fans have classified as a "
vintage Obama"
speech. High on elegant words, erudite, some may say inspirational - like some of his past speeches. And like those previous speeches, whether the outcome results in anything more than these words remains to be seen. He implied that the only feasible future for Israel was for an independent Israel and independent "Palestine" alongside each other. It would require surrendering the West Bank settlements and a return to the 1967 borders - however Obama suggested that if Israel surrendered these vital strategic positions and settlements, the Palestinians may respect the Jewish state, and its right to exist... This is because Israel can now trust Palestinian president Mahmoud
Abbas to be a "partner", and Obama's USA to be Israel's "greatest friend" that
it can "count on". In short, he tried to persuade young Israelis that things that appear very improbable can actually happen.
Oil - the key for the USSR...
and Israel?
Indeed - improbable things HAVE happened... The USSR fell only a couple of years after East German president Honecker described the Berlin Wall as being built to last "for the next thousand years". Why such a turn of events? In large part, the USSR's weakening power could be attributed to a drastic
fall in the price of oil, on whose export it was dependent for its revenue. In the absence of income from oil, the Eastern Bloc nations resorted to increasing their debts.
Given that the Palestinians' and current US administration's respect for Israel is
questionable to say the least, my opinion is that the solution proposed by Barack Obama is dangerous, possibly making the destruction of Israel that much easier for the Palestinians. Instead, only another drastic, and lasting, change in the price of oil will make it possible to guarantee Israel's long-term future. Oil being the reason why the West currently has to recognise the Arab world's many grievances and demands. It was a weapon used in 1973, when Arab countries launched an embargo on Western "allies of Israel" in the wake of the 1973 war. Possibly now, the oil Sheikhs are an unofficial source of funding for the "Palestinian cause" - including Qassams, as well as food and medicine. Dependence on oil is also why the EU in particular feels the need to be in the good books of Arab Gulf state rulers.
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| The Burj Khalifa - petrodollars helped to build it |
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| Qassam rockets - petrodollars also helped to build them? |
So how would a large decrease in the oil price change things? The UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and other oil exporters, having made large investments, would be liable to face serious economic problems - quite possibly making Greece and Cyprus today look like oases of stability. It would mean less "benevolent funding" for Western universities, and takeovers of Western companies. It may even result in once-wealthy Gulf states requiring Western assistance in the form of bail-outs... As a result, if Western pressure were to be carefully applied following a
lasting oil price decrease, could Arab states not be more inclined to
recognise Israel's needs - and even possibly to accept some Palestinian
immigrants?
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| A vastly bigger oil price = vastly more petrodollars! |
Discovering America
There have already been occasions in the past when Islam held a stranglehold on the West. After the conquest of Constantinople in 1453, the Ottomans made Western trade with India increasingly more costly and difficult. Suffering under the trade restrictions, European Christians started to look for new solutions. Eventually, these included radical ideas to find entirely different trade routes to India, not encroaching on Muslim territory. The search for an alternative trade route was the
reason for Christopher Columbus sailing West from Europe, as well as Vasco da Gama sailing South, four decades later. We all know what happened next...
Although the New World was discovered by accident, it was as a direct result of trade routes to India through newly-conquered Muslim lands becoming much less favourable. And a way to India via America was finally found after Ferdinand Magellan set sail around the world in 1519. Once again, we need to "discover America" - to find a way out of the stranglehold the Muslim world currently exerts on us.
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| Breaking the Muslims' stranglehold on Europe... in the style of Columbus and Vasco Da Gama |
Increasing supply, decreasing demand
How can such a "Columbus moment" be achieved in the present day? The cause of the current stranglehold by the Islamic world - a high oil price - is due to a significantly higher demand than was previously the case - without as much of an increase in supply. Much of it due to new demand from China. Since oil is a globally-traded commodity, a decrease in demand from one country will exert an impact on the oil price in another country - even if no direct oil trade takes place between them. For example - if US oil consumption decreases, the price of oil sold by Indonesia will drop - even if the US buys no oil from Indonesia. This is because there is more surplus oil left in the original suppliers of the US, who can now also offer it to Indonesia's customers. The key, then, to reduce the oil price must be to reduce oil consumption - or increase oil supply - throughout the world...
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| The western world - bankrolling its own enemies... |
Such an imbalance between supply and demand can be rectified using various means, including:
- New technologies.
- Drilling new oilfields.
- Alternative means of travel.
- Greater efficiency of vehicles.
- Reducing travel.
Petrol from air
To drastically alter the oil supply and demand seems unlikely. Indeed, current trends suggest the opposite... However there are some glimmers of hope. These include:
- Vast new shale oil reserves in the USA and Canada.
- Efficient, non-car-dependent urban transportation systems (such as in the Brazilian city of Curitiba).
- A new method of creating fuel - "Petrol from air" - using water, Carbon Dioxide and electricity. A method developed by the "Air Fuel Synthesis" company in the UK.
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| A process for obtaining petrol from air and water - with no oil |
Finding new oil reserves however seems only a temporary solution, and one which has been tried already - in the North Sea, whose oilfields Britain and Norway have to a large extent
already depleted. Meanwhile, kerosene-powered aircraft appear to be the only answer for long-distance air travel (and gasoline-powered cars for much short-distance travel), and while efficiency is increasing, there are no quantum leaps to be made. 20% less fuel burn per passenger-kilometre is a feasible target for aircraft, with similar reductions expected for cars. With more Chinese and Indians travelling, and Western college graduates travelling around the world in ever greater numbers, reducing travel is not only impossible, but a vast increase in demand for travel appears inevitable. Therefore, new technology appears to be the most probable cause of any future radical downward shift in oil demand.
A new method of creating gasoline, or a gasoline equivalent, independently from oil - but instead with electricity from another source (at present - coal, gas, hydro, wind or nuclear fission. In the future - nuclear fusion?) - could result in a vast decrease in the demand for, and hence the price of, oil, and indirectly go a long way to securing Israel and the Western World's future... perhaps Israel's world-renowned scientists and technologists, residing in a country described by Obama as a "center for innovation", should focus on working on such solutions?
